01-28-2024, 03:44 PM
(This post was last modified: 02-01-2024, 07:42 PM by lemonoppy. Edited 3 times in total.)
The (un)Official Preseason Rankings of the ISFL
In the same manner as last season, I calculated these preseason rankings based on TPE of the presumed starters for each team. This process was only 15 games off of all regular season standings last time around. The biggest misses were Colorado (by 3 games) and Cape Town and Honolulu (by 2 games) while the records for Berlin, San Jose, and Yellowknife were exactly correct. Every other team finished within 1 game of the predicted record. I will explain the process below but you are also welcome to jump straight to the rankings!
How the Preseason Rating is Calculated
In order to come up with a score, I took a look at three categories: the TPE of the presumed starting 11 offensive players, the TPE of the presumed starting 11 defensive players, and the TPE of the quarterback.
The offense TPE was the sum of the quarterback, the top 5 TPE offensive skill positions, and the five offensive lineman. In the case of teams not having a full human o-line, a score of 350 was given for each bot. This number was chosen for two reasons. First, 350 is the median TPE tier for purchasing o-line bots and second, this matches up with information I received from multiple GMs when I was still an offensive lineman as to the amount of TPE I would need in order to start playing in the ISFL.
The defensive TPE was the sum of the top 11 TPE defensive players as long as it followed some restrictions. Each team had to field either 4 or 5 defensive backs and a minimum of 3 defensive lineman. This was my best approximation of the 11 defensive players that would be on the field most often for each team.
Lastly, I also considered the TPE of each team's quarterback independently as well.
While raw TPE is one of our measures of how skilled a player is, there is a point where more TPE doesn't actually increase the skill of the player. While this cap is different for each archetype, the amount of TPE that a player can contribute does stop at that value (this is between 1165 and 1355). So a player with over that value only contributes up to their archetype cap.
With each of these scores calculated, I standardized each TPE total separately (I know, small sample size and probably not normally distributed but it works for what I want it to do!) A team’s preseason rating was then the sum of these three z-scores. To take it a step further, if each team's sum was rounded to the nearest whole number, that became my prediction on how many games above or below .500 a team will finish this year. (With a slight adjustment to get records to come out correctly.)
Before we get on to the rankings, I want to take a moment to say that it appears that the ASFC is stacked compared to the NSFC. When working out the season predictions, I had to artificially add wins to the NSFC and take wins away from the ASFC just to make the interconference records come out to be 75% - 25% in favor of the ASFC (still an almost unachievable win rate). We shall see if this plays out over the course of the season or not but I wouldn’t be shocked if multiple teams miss the playoffs in the ASFC where the same record would put them in the playoffs in the NSFC.
Onto the rankings!
S46 Preseason Power Rankings
14. Berlin Fire Salamanders (-3.69)Offense Rating: -0.78 (12th)
Defense Rating: -1.27 (14th)
QB Rating: -1.64 (14th)
S45 Result: 9-7, 4th Place in the NSFC
S46 Prediction: 5-11, 7th Place in the NSFC
Stars to Watch:
WR Emile Charles (@Number 82)
WR Nick Williams (@nickWilliams)
DE Clint Mustache (@manicmav36)
S Diggs Sideline-touchdown (@Dewalt27)
Season Outlook according to @Dewalt27:
So for me as the GM, I think I have pretty reasonable expectations. A good season would just be a playoff berth and hoping for some luck to go on a run. The season would be a disappointment if we were to be picking top 4 next season and not able to stay competitive.
13. Yellowknife Wraiths (-2.70)
Offense Rating: -0.85 (13th)
Defense Rating: -1.01 (13th)
QB Rating: -0.85 (12th)
S45 Result: 4-12, 7th Place in the NSFC
S46 Prediction: 6-10, 6th Place in the NSFC
Stars to Watch:
RB Money Tolliver (@jeffie43)
DT Mo Gago (@FTR)
CB Kadarius Claypool II (@Weaves)
TE Detective Crashmore (@speculadora)
DE Dan Dandrews (@sburbine)
Season Outlook according to @lock180:
So the Wraith GM’s have foolishly put me, Zenzeroni Xystarch II, second coming of Venus Powers and superior sibling to Zenzizenzizenzic Xystarch, in charge of this little excerpt on how well we will do this season. So let me put it like this:
Up and coming Quarterback? Check
Star Tight End? Check
Elite Running Back? Check
Best Kicker in the league? Check
The only position lacking is wide receiver and if Toney can still play for the Chiefs then our wide receivers can still play for us.
On the defensive side we are even better boasting two corners soon to be reaching their prime, and some random safety named @TubaDeus that we found wandering the street. Then there’s the dangerous defensive ends and tackles Mo Gago and Dan Dandrews and two respectable linebackers. Of course, we do have the liability of having Thor Dangerson on our team but if you look past that you can see that this is a sleeper team that could make a big impact starting as soon as this season. So don’t let last season's fluke fool you from seeing the potential in this underdog team with emerging and rising stars and don’t be surprised to see us slip into the playoffs when the end of the season rolls around.
.
.
.
Enough with this PR nonsense, this is how I really see it. This is MY team and they are NOTHING without me. I am the ONLY thing holding this team together and am the only reason we will be competing this season. So I may have received 1st team all pro as a punter but don’t let that fool you into thinking I’m not coming for every single one of you. Whether you are on my team or off I am out for BLOOD. Because THIS SEASON. THIS SEASON, IS THE YEAR OF THE JOKER HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHA
-Zenzeroni Xystarch II
Image by @homercrates
12. Cape Town Crash (-2.22)
Offense Rating: -0.08 (5th)
Defense Rating: -0.55 (10th)
QB Rating: -1.58 (13th)
S45 Result: 7-9, 6th Place in the NSFC
S46 Prediction: 6-10, 5th Place in the NSFC
Stars to Watch:
RB Nakiri Ayame (@ValorX77)
WR Kairo Knight (@Akoustique)
CB Legs McMillion (@jollyjiggs)
LB Rolud Onyxgut (@crash1005)
LB Justin Willis (@Cycro)
CB Luigi Numberone (@ztarwarz)
WR Malik Brooks (@AK41)
Season Outlook according to @negs:
Expectations are to get back to the playoffs for sure. Our team is pretty strong everywhere and we had our 1k OL (Justin Willis) swap to LB to shore up the defense. Young QB in Thor Bǫllrsveifla but he’s a scrambler archetype so the legs will hopefully be able to supplement the throwing. Our DT3 is def really weak at 250 TPE and our safeties are pretty low TPE. But I think those are really the only main weaknesses outside of a young qb. So hoping for 9+ wins.
11. New Orleans Secondline (-0.98)
Offense Rating: -0.36 (8th)
Defense Rating: -0.59 (11th)
QB Rating: -0.02 (8th)
S45 Result: 5-11, 7th Place in the ASFC
S46 Prediction: 7-9, 7th Place in the ASFC
Stars to Watch:
CB Ezra Azazel (@baz1757)
DT Bruce White (@toofpete)
RB Kyle Crane (@Ultimatedestroye)
WR Hank Mardukas (@Chicken Lips)
QB Octavion Speedings (@CeeKay)
Season Outlook according to @Tmoney6996:
Is it Ultimus or bust time yet in NOLA? Not quite, but that hasn’t stopped the Secondline from setting up high expectations for themselves after a “successful” 6-10 campaign last season. NOLA comes into S46 ready to take the next step of the rebuild process and hopefully look to get into the mix with the rest of the ASFC. If you ask members of the Second Line, the sky's the limit for this team. Returning all but 1 starter on defense and returning all starters on offense, both sides of the ball appear to have their foundations laid out, and are looking to continue the trend upward. Will the loss of Apollo and the regression of Gadget at the Safety position potentially bring the defense back down to pre-S45 numbers? It’s certainly possible, but the infusion of youth on the defensive side of the ball with Dawelle Wevis, Paul Edgecomb, and Oxford Comma looks to potentially be enough to keep the defense humming.
Where NOLA saw a drop-off last season was on offense (some of this was for sure a volume decrease between S44 and S45), but the real question is can the offense produce points at a solid rate? Mardukas has clearly shown they have what it takes to be the WR1 for this team, and paired with Crane, they make a dynamic duo of potential TD scorers. I think the real question for the NOLA offense is can the supporting pieces and offensive line do enough to lift the stars to the top? Passarelli has been a solid safety valve for Speedings, but with only 3 TDs in 2 years, there’s plenty to be desired there (shoutout Eli Prince for picking up the slack). Additionally, the offensive line got Speedings beat up repeatedly last season, and while measures were taken to help that this offseason, including nabbing highly coveted rookie Octavio Volarus, will it be enough to keep Speedings upright?
Speaking to the special teams of the Second Line. Alfonso Dos Santos finally hung up the cleats this offseason and passed the kicking tee on to Jack Sloth. They are mighty big shoes to fill, but the kicking team in NOLA should rest easy for the next decade or so.
Ultimately, NOLA is trending in the right direction and now have all of the pieces in place to make themselves a contender. The NOLA faithful certainly think that this could be a huge year for the team, but can they live up to those expectations?
What does a successful season look like: 8+ wins and finishing higher than 5th in the ASFC
What does a failure look like this season: Fewer than 6 wins and worst than 6th in the ASFC
10. Baltimore Hawks (-0.91)
Offense Rating: -0.85 (14th)
Defense Rating: 0.78 (3rd)
QB Rating: -0.83 (11th)
S45 Result: 9-7, 2nd Place in the NSFC, Wildcard Round Loss
S46 Prediction: 7-9, 4th Place in the NSFC
Stars to Watch:
CB Jake Williams (@dude_man)
DT MC Hammer (@Aneeqs)
CB Dino Nuggets (@swoosh)
Season Outlook according to @SwankyPants31:
The Hawks enter S46 teetering on the razor's edge. While regression took a heavy toll on the passing game, they still find themselves with all starting skill position players in the 700-1000 TPE range, with the exception of tight end. On the defensive side, the secondary remains strong with a front 7 that, similar to the offense, is made up of players that are either very young or deep into regression but somehow meet in the middle around the 700 TPE range. Despite all this, the Hawks are in a fairly strong position in comparison to the rest of their conference, and have the personnel to make one last playoff push before the rebuild begins in earnest. Notably, the Hawks traded star offensive lineman Bengal Tigerheart prior to the beginning of the season for draft capital, possibly signaling a future sell-off. To the Hawks, success this season could come in two forms: either one last trip to the playoffs and a shot at another Ultimus, or a further accumulation of draft capital in preparation for the S47 draft class.
9. Chicago Butchers (-0.81)
Offense Rating: -0.57 (11th)
Defense Rating: -0.43 (9th)
QB Rating: 0.18 (7th)
S45 Result: 8-8, 5th Place in the NSFC
S46 Prediction: 7-9, 3rd Place in the NSFC
Stars to Watch:
S Rico Savage (@TheRake)
CB Heiijas D. Owidhuse (@firstfray)
QB Painted Penguin (@Painted)
Season Outlook according to @Painted:
For this season to be a success, the Butchers should be looking to make the playoffs even win a playoff game. Obviously, the hope is for even more, but variance is pretty high.
8. New York Silverbacks (0.14)
Offense Rating: -0.14 (7th)
Defense Rating: -0.96 (12th)
QB Rating: 1.24 (1st)
S45 Result: 8-8, 5th Place in the ASFC
S46 Prediction: 8-8, 6th Place in the ASFC
Stars to Watch:
S Loose Cannon (@Jumbo)
RB Frank Dux (@ComebackZak)
DT Dub Redd (@wizard_literal)
QB Blaine Falco (@Tayjay)
DT Lionel Scrimmage (@Mojojojo)
WR Sean Robinson (@18situaseans)
CB The Riddler (@MattBake12)
Season Outlook according to @Baron1898:
What do you take away from a 8-8 season and a fifth place finish in the conference? For New York, the answer may be somewhat surprising. The inevitable march of time has begun to take its toll on the team's playoff core of years past, who are either reaching the peaks of their career or already fighting against regression. Longtime veterans Dax Dangerfield and Regina Ferraro made like a banana and split; stalwarts like McHollywood, Swift, Webb, and Buddy are only a few seasons delayed from joining them. There is a severe need in the near future for younger stars to retool the roster.
But if I remove my Negatron glasses and don my Optimist Prime goggles, Season 46 looks much more friendly to the Silverbacks than at first glance. The top bananas of the Falco-Dux-Robinszn offense remain in their prime and are likely to perform just as well, if not better, than they did last season. Their previous record also bears some hefty qualifiers; the ASFC was incredibly chaotic last season, the sim was often unkind (17 penalties for 199 yards in a single game wtf), and any New York fan remembers the offense's bizarre transformation into the S7 Colorado Yeti as soon as they crossed the 20-yard line. And for a team in contention for a playoff berth as late as the Silverbacks were, drafting sixth overall and landing two young defensive studs was a fortuitous outcome not only for this next season – where Lyle Taylor will make the immediate jump up – but for many seasons down the road.
So realistically, the vibe is one of cautious optimism. For the Silverbacks, accustomed to having one foot on a banana peel, the season could very easily slip away from them if they are out-shouldered by teams like Honolulu and Arizona in the competitive ASFC and can't improve on their offensive efficiency. This core can ill afford to waste another season. But the league's sixth-best team by average TPE can expect better than to go down without a fight. The goal is to be around the same place the team was in last season: taking care of business against most teams, stealing a win or two from top contenders, and sitting right in the thick of the playoff hunt.
This time let's just hope they don't drop three straight one-possession games in a row and miss the dance again.
7. Colorado Yeti (0.19)
Offense Rating: -0.54 (10th)
Defense Rating: -0.33 (8th)
QB Rating: 1.06 (3rd)
S45 Result: 10-6, 1st Place in the NSFC, Conference Championship Loss
S46 Prediction: 9-7, 2nd Place in the NSFC
Stars to Watch:
LB Waylen Greene (@fnordypsyduck)
S Mary Marie (@aeonsjenni)
QB Wolfie McDummy Jr. (@infinitempg)
LB Federico Americano (@MN_Moosey)
WR National Treasure (@electrictree)
Season Outlook according to @caleb.grim:
So the Yeti are the only team that didn’t have a volunteer to provide an outlook going into season 46. That means it falls to me to put forth a synopsis. I probably should have dropped them down a few spots for this…
Last season, the Yeti secured the number 1 seed in the NSFC despite having a negative point differential. They fielded a strong defense while their offense did just enough to win a lot of close games. So following what seemed like an outlier season, do we expect the Yeti to take a step backwards for S46? Yes but… the conditions of the other ISFL teams appear to be in the Yeti’s favor. In terms of TPE, Colorado will field a very middle of the pack roster. However, they have a maxed out QB in Wolfie McDummy Jr. who should be one of the best in the ISFL. The ASFC has by far and away the better rosters on paper and the Yeti will only need to play those teams four times. With a star at the most important position and a very weak NSFC overall, I expect Colorado to return to the playoffs once again. Though I have my doubts as to whether they will be a true Ultimus contender.
6. Austin Copperheads (0.23)
Offense Rating: 0.51 (3rd)
Defense Rating: 0.18 (6th)
QB Rating: -0.46 (10th)
S45 Result: 9-7, 2nd Place in the ASFC, Ultimus Winner
S46 Prediction: 8-8, 5th Place in the ASFC
Stars to Watch:
RB Howard Coward (@JKortesi81)
S Geralt (@.Laser)
DT Carly Rae Jensen (@unconfident)
Season Outlook according to @Gadget:
Despite winning the Ultimus the prior season, the Austin Copperheads are not in as strong of a position as one would assume. A large portion of the team is deep in regression or retiring. As a result Austin is slated to look far closer to the 2021 Rams, with a quick season or two in the gutter needed.
Austin’s Ultimus win came at a surprise to just about everyone in the prior season. Their window was thought to have been closed, and the GMs decided to move on to a rookie quarterback, and shed older pieces, the team was a last hoorah to a core that never seemed fated to get it done. This season, those pieces are gone. Joey Din, Inspector Gadget, and Spicy Ron to name a few were all core parts of the team that left in the prior offseason.
So can they do it again? Probably not, a quick look at the TPE tracker shows that most of the team’s season starts with a “3”. Additionally both the average and top end TPE is low, with about 1/3rd of the players cracking even 800, and only 3 of them breaching 1000. That being said, what TPE is there is very well positioned for a very specific gameplan. Give Howard Coward the football. Rostering 3 offensive linemen over 500 TPE in beneficial archetypes, a fullback acting as an additional lineman, and even their low TPE receiving tight end has a massive investment in hands, which is beneficial to the running game. Similarly, their defense is weak in the defensive backfield outside of Geralt, but their strength is in the front 7, with, while not a murderers row, a still competent pass rush game.
So in spite of this doom and gloom, Austin has a very strong game plan that will be extremely matchup dependent. This means they’ll have games against teams like New Orleans where it should look like their offense can’t get off the ground as a result of their (shockingly strong) front 7, and games against teams like San Jose who’s highest DT doesn’t even breach 700 TPE, where they’re liable to potentially put up 40+.
What youth that is in Austin is also projected to keep the RB machine going for a while, With the revival of the fullback, Austin is slated to be the team best used for 12-13 personnel looks with multiple tight ends should they elect to draft more, or “Pony” looks with 2 RBs in. As a result, Austin is slated to be in the 8-10 win range from testing I’ve seen, despite the lack of raw TPE available.
5. San Jose SaberCats (0.51)
Offense Rating: -0.10 (6th)
Defense Rating: 0.32 (5th)
QB Rating: 0.28 (6th)
S45 Result: 6-10, 6th Place in the ASFC
S46 Prediction: 8-8, 4th Place in the ASFC
Stars to Watch:
DE Alex Armstrong (@Duilio05)
CB Brooks Piggott (@ckroyal92)
LB DJ Maclean (@Urq660)
CB Blacksmith Andre (@Muford)
QB Josh Patterson (@Tylertokesome04)
WR Keanu Calhoun (@Frostbite)
Season Outlook according to @RussDrivesTheBus:
San Jose has been brewing up a Primal Storm for some time now and is almost ready to unleash it upon the ISFL! This season's ambition is to crack the top 3 in the ASFC, and we are fully capable of that! Our offense is young and hungry and our defense is stout. We should give teams plenty to prepare for in S46!
4. Sarasota Sailfish (1.10)
Offense Rating: -0.46 (9th)
Defense Rating: 0.56 (4th)
QB Rating: 1.00 (4th)
S45 Result: 9-7, 3rd Place in the NSFC, Ultimus Loss
S46 Prediction: 9-7, 1st Place in the NSFC
Stars to Watch:
CB Fronky Fresh (@Fronk)
LB Max Honestly (@Sizz)
QB Willier Miller (@Sebster)
RB Ace Anderson (@DangWookie)
Season Outlook According to @abh89:
Sarasota comes into S46 fresh off a crushing overtime loss in the S45 Ultimus. While they didn’t come away with the win, they exceeded expectations by making it to the championship game at all. It’s a completely different story this season as Sarasota should enter S46 as favorites to represent the NSFC in the Ultimus again. This time though, they have some much needed playoff experience and their young defense is hitting their prime. This Sailfish team has a chip on their shoulder and is here to finish the job in S46.
3. Honolulu Hahalua (1.96)
Offense Rating: -0.10 (4th)
Defense Rating: 2.50 (1st)
QB Rating: -0.46 (10th)
S45 Result: 11-5, 1st Place in the ASFC, Conference Championship Loss
S46 Prediction: 10-6, 3rd Place in the ASFC
Stars to Watch:
DE Liv Elsathelookout (@Bayley)
LB Maxwell Jacob Friedman (@JuOSu)
CB Luigi Lanikai (@IceBear32)
CB Billy Jor-El (@LtHudz)
K/P Ray Baker (@jdc4654)
LB Liath Squirrel (@LiathTheSquirrel)
WR Florida Man (@nickyvmlp)
RB Stetson David (@oilmandan)
S Alita Battle Angel (@moonlight)
WR Speedy Gizmo (@WildfireMicro)
Season Outlook according to @IceBear32:
After being one of the top contenders the last couple seasons, the Hahalua look to give it one final push with Nova at QB. With the defense on the older side, this looks like this should be their last as one of the top units in the league. With a couple known retirements and regression in the face of Honolulu, they are looking to make this season count. With experience on both sides of the ball, they expect nothing less than to continue their success and send Nova and others out with a ring. Also looks like this season we should be going into things with the highest TPE per player which is always a great sign.
2. Arizona Outlaws (2.72)
Offense Rating: 1.76 (2nd)
Defense Rating: -0.27 (7th)
QB Rating: 1.23 (2nd)
S45 Result: 9-7, 3rd Place in the ASFC, Wildcard Loss
S46 Prediction: 10-6, 2nd Place in the ASFC
Stars to Watch:
WR Benji Aguilera (@CROney3)
QB Donovan Winters III (@zeagle1)
DT Sir Tywrell Xah’Aawrone (@Rabidsponge21)
LB Sherwin Blue Jr. (@Kotasa)
CB Benjamin Duvernay (@Purpl3Spartan)
OL Fortified Fridge (@BaconBrother)
S Notso Smart (@Pib)
Season Outlook according to @lemonoppy:
Arizona looks poised to make a run for the championship in S46. Although we've said goodbye to some franchise cornerstones, with the addition of DSFL stars in Iman Outlaw and CG Breezy Jr. as well as Bertie Mannering-Phipps in free agency, the Outlaws have the plans for an Ultimus heist in motion.
1. Orange County Otters (4.46)
Offense Rating: 2.56 (1st)
Defense Rating: 1.07 (2nd)
QB Rating: 0.83 (5th)
S45 Results: 8-8, 4th Place in the ASFC
S46 Prediction: 12-4, 1st Place in the ASFC
Stars to Watch:
CB Jamdrian LeBayers (@kenvald)
S Smokin Jay (@Beck)
LB Sim Sunigh (@SimmiZ)
LB John Stark VIII (@UptownCord)
CB Apollo Program (@Modern_Duke)
OL Walrus Jones (@caravaggio)
WR Big McLarge Huge (@Hydrium)
QB Lloyd Bannings (@bowl0)
OL Bengal Tigerheart (@shanghai_kid)
RB Reginald Shrubbery (@shrub02)
WR Oliver Tolliver (@Memento Mori)
Season Outlook according to @Beck:
Orange County's expectations are higher this season than they have been in some time. After a lengthy rebuild, we enter S46 as one of the top TPE teams in the league, and a great balance of veterans and youth throughout the roster. Anything short of a playoff berth would be a disappointment this season.
That’s it for these rankings! Which team will surprise us this season? Which team is overrated? Let me know what you think!
Also, a big thank you to everyone that contributed or pestered someone else to contribute including @Dewalt27, @lock180, @homercrates, @negs, @Tmoney6996, @SwankyPants31, @Painted, @Baron1898, @Gadget, @RussDrivesTheBus, @abh89, @IceBear32, @lemonoppy, and @Beck. I truly appreciate it and I think it makes the write-up infinitely better!
DSFL S43 Draft - Round 4 Pick 30
ISFL S44 Draft - Round 1 Pick 12
S43 DSFL Pro Bowl
S44 DSFL Pro Bowl
S45 All Rookie Team
Gemini Media Awards
12 Gemini Nominations
Best Article (Limited) - S43 "Do Penalties Really Matter?"
Best Author - S43, S44