*S23 Elo Rankings - Week 6

[IthicaHawk]

For what this is based on, see my previous articles here:

• 1 Elo ranking NSFL teams
• 2 Home Field Advantage - An Analysis
• 3 NSFL Scorigami

For additional stat based content see here:

• The greatest team in the history of the NSFL, A video report

Previous Elo reports
Season 22 - Wk1 - Wk2 - Wk3 - Wk4 - Wk5 - Wk6 - Wk8 - Wk9 - Wk10 - Wk12 - Wk13 - S22 Review
Season 23 - Wk1 - Wk2 - Wk3 - Wk5

Week 5 is in the bag and we have three Scorigami, a full 50% of the games played had a unique score. The 40-7 Hawks Sailfish game, the 36-12 Outlaws Hahalua game and the 35-12 Copperheads SaberCats game.
Week 5 see's also one of the lowest Elo movements we've seen to date. The Wraiths who had an effective Elo difference from the Liberty of 264.54 had an 82.10% chance of winning that game. Heavy underdogs Liberty didn't manage to get the win but they gave away the smallest possible winning margin, finishing the game with 23 points to Wraiths 24. The base amount for a win in this Elo system is 30 points. This is then modified based on a number of factors including relative strength. Thanks to this, Liberty only drop 3.41 points in the rankings tables despite taking an L.

On the flipside, both Hawks/Sailfish and Hahalua/Outlaws were expected to be competitive with 16.70 and 75.72 difference respectively. Sailfish Hawks was the most competitive of these matchups with 52.40% chance Sailfish win. By then dropping 40-7 to the Hawks, Hawks gained themselves 53.45 points. Outlaws pulled something similar off and got 58.36 for their efforts.

The result of all of this is some serious movement in the tables with Outlaws effectively swapping places with Sailfish as they go 10th to 6th and vice versa.
Despite a win, the thin margin wasn't enough for Wraiths to hold onto the #1 spot as Otters 27-7 win over Second Line netted them a nice 29.01 points.

The rankings after week 5 are as follows:

1(+1) 1,690.22
2(-1) 1,674.85
3(+1) 1,602.53
4(-1) 1,571.37
5(=) 1,557.97
6(+4) 1,488.45
7(+1) 1,468.48
8(+3) 1,461.45
9(-2) 1,441.73
10(-4) 1,436.25
11(-2) 1,382.45
12(=) 1,226.47

Week 6

@
Number 12 ranked Butchers travel to Austin to take on the #3 ranked Copperheads. Copperheads have been a top contender last season and early this season so this is an extremely tough matchup for the Butchers who have only fellow 1-4 Hahalua for company right now. 92.68% odds for Copperheads.

@
After some serious threatening last season SaberCats have struggled a bit this season with consistancy. Losing to the #11 ranked team one week then beating the #1 ranked team the next. What does this mean? I don't know but the spreadsheet think that means that Yeti have a 73.95% chance of winning this week so ask it.

@
Sailfish and Hahalua mirrored each other a lot last season. This season the gap is widening as sailfish asserts its dominance as the superior non-mammal aquatic team. Hahalua will look to show that they're still in this though and a win here will allow them to match the record and close the gap. Sailfish have the edge 66.46%.

@
Outlaws are another conundrum being hot garbage one week and hot shit the next. Hawks are a somewhat surprising 3-2 this season and will look to continue that but, despite the better record, it's the Outlaws that are favoured in this matchup with 62.94% winning chance.

@
Match up of the week. Winner takes the #1 spot. This should be a great game as the two remaining 4-1 teams go head to head. Wraiths are the pure Elo score underdogs but, with home field advantage on their side, the odds flip slightly into their favour. Wraiths to take #1 57.09%

@
Goodish team travels to face not-so-goodish team. Goodish team has effective score reduced thanks to playing on the road. Not-so-goodish team isn't quite goodish enough to have that sway the odds. Goodish team to win 55.43%

Summary
@ = 92.68%
@ = 73.95%
@ = 66.46%
@ = 62.94%
@ = 57.09%
@ = 55.43%

[Opera_Phantom]

rising!

[Frostbite]

heck the sim

[SwagSloth]