06-26-2020, 06:38 AM
(This post was last modified: 06-26-2020, 03:26 PM by Fordhammer.)
For what this is based on, see my previous articles here:
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Previous Elo reports
Season 22 - Wk1 - Wk2 - Wk3 - Wk4 - Wk5 - Wk6 - Wk8 - Wk9 - Wk10 - Wk12 - Wk13 - S22 Review
Season 23 - Wk1 - Wk2 - Wk3 - Wk5 - Wk6
Week 6 has come and gone and, compared to last weeks flurry of movement this week is quite stationary. Of the top 7 ranked teams, only two moved, just swapping places with each other. The rest held onto their spots. Otters had reclaimed the top spot from the Wraiths last week despite both teams winning thanks to a heftier Elo bump for the Otters. Wraiths had a chance to take that spot back off them directly this week but, in an exciting overtime game, couldn't quite pull it off. The Otters gain 23.58 points and the Wraiths lose the same giving the Otters a healthy 62 point lead at the top of the table once again.
With a score of 1511.29 Outlaws climb above 1500 for the first time since week 1 of S21 as the continue their upward trajectory. Their climbing sees them as favourites again this week as the go visit the Sailfish.
[div align=\\\"center\\\"]
Figure 1. Outlaws Elo from S18 season start to S23 week 6[/div]
The rankings after week 6 are as follows:
1(=) 1,713.80
2(=) 1,651.27
3(=) 1,607.61
4(+1) 1,582.71
5(-1) 1,549.35
6(=) 1,511.29
7(=) 1,490.50
8(+2) 1,455.36
9(-1) 1,438.61
10(-1) 1,416.99
11(=) 1,363.34
12(=) 1,221.39
Week 7
@
Otters have a comfortable lead but it's always at risk when you play a lower ranked team. Hawks are currently sitting at 9th in the tables, 275 points behind the Otters. This means an upset would be extremely costly for the Otters and give the Wraiths a chance to close that gap and even overtake them in a single week. Hawks have home field advantage here but we still favour the Otters 77.03%.
@
Copperheads need to keep winning and hope that the Wraiths or Otters stumble once or twice at this point for them to close the gap. They are 43 points behind #2 and over 100 points behind #1. The season isn't even halfway through yet of course so there is plenty of time for that to happen. A win this week would be a good start. Copperheads looked a little unsettled last week vs the Butchers and made the game a bit harder for themselves than it needed to be. They'll look to build confidence with a strong showing this week. Copperheads 74.04%.
@
Very similar situation once again for the Wraiths as the Otters. They really can't afford a loss here or they risk letting the #1 position slip further and further away from them. Copperheads are hot on their heels so a strong performance is needed. SaberCats have home field but we still say Wraiths 72.60%.
@
Outlaws are on a bit of a run after starting 1-3. They're now 3-3 and hoping to go above .500 on the season with this game. Sailfish have floundered a bit, dropping through the tables and bouncing back up. They're currently in 8th and 55 points behind Outlaws. Outlaws to take this 66.73%.
@
Both teams here looking for their second win of the season. Since there are only two teams with a lone win left and they're playing each other here, barring a tie, we will see at least one go to 2-5. Hahalua are in 11th place right now, 50 or so points behind #10 but still a solid 140 above Butchers in 12th. Butchers do have the home field advantage so that makes it a bit more competitive. In the end we say Hahalua will take this 60.90%.
@
Yeti just jumped infront of Second Line in the tables so Second Line will be looking for a W here to knock Yeti back down. We're bordering on too-close-to-call territory here but we pick Second Line for the W 54.54%.
Summary
@ = 77.03%
@ = 74.04%
@ = 72.60%
@ = 66.73%
@ = 60.90%
@ = 54.54%
Season 22 - Wk1 - Wk2 - Wk3 - Wk4 - Wk5 - Wk6 - Wk8 - Wk9 - Wk10 - Wk12 - Wk13 - S22 Review
Season 23 - Wk1 - Wk2 - Wk3 - Wk5 - Wk6
Week 6 has come and gone and, compared to last weeks flurry of movement this week is quite stationary. Of the top 7 ranked teams, only two moved, just swapping places with each other. The rest held onto their spots. Otters had reclaimed the top spot from the Wraiths last week despite both teams winning thanks to a heftier Elo bump for the Otters. Wraiths had a chance to take that spot back off them directly this week but, in an exciting overtime game, couldn't quite pull it off. The Otters gain 23.58 points and the Wraiths lose the same giving the Otters a healthy 62 point lead at the top of the table once again.
With a score of 1511.29 Outlaws climb above 1500 for the first time since week 1 of S21 as the continue their upward trajectory. Their climbing sees them as favourites again this week as the go visit the Sailfish.
[div align=\\\"center\\\"]
Figure 1. Outlaws Elo from S18 season start to S23 week 6[/div]
The rankings after week 6 are as follows:
1(=) 1,713.80
2(=) 1,651.27
3(=) 1,607.61
4(+1) 1,582.71
5(-1) 1,549.35
6(=) 1,511.29
7(=) 1,490.50
8(+2) 1,455.36
9(-1) 1,438.61
10(-1) 1,416.99
11(=) 1,363.34
12(=) 1,221.39
Week 7
@
Otters have a comfortable lead but it's always at risk when you play a lower ranked team. Hawks are currently sitting at 9th in the tables, 275 points behind the Otters. This means an upset would be extremely costly for the Otters and give the Wraiths a chance to close that gap and even overtake them in a single week. Hawks have home field advantage here but we still favour the Otters 77.03%.
@
Copperheads need to keep winning and hope that the Wraiths or Otters stumble once or twice at this point for them to close the gap. They are 43 points behind #2 and over 100 points behind #1. The season isn't even halfway through yet of course so there is plenty of time for that to happen. A win this week would be a good start. Copperheads looked a little unsettled last week vs the Butchers and made the game a bit harder for themselves than it needed to be. They'll look to build confidence with a strong showing this week. Copperheads 74.04%.
@
Very similar situation once again for the Wraiths as the Otters. They really can't afford a loss here or they risk letting the #1 position slip further and further away from them. Copperheads are hot on their heels so a strong performance is needed. SaberCats have home field but we still say Wraiths 72.60%.
@
Outlaws are on a bit of a run after starting 1-3. They're now 3-3 and hoping to go above .500 on the season with this game. Sailfish have floundered a bit, dropping through the tables and bouncing back up. They're currently in 8th and 55 points behind Outlaws. Outlaws to take this 66.73%.
@
Both teams here looking for their second win of the season. Since there are only two teams with a lone win left and they're playing each other here, barring a tie, we will see at least one go to 2-5. Hahalua are in 11th place right now, 50 or so points behind #10 but still a solid 140 above Butchers in 12th. Butchers do have the home field advantage so that makes it a bit more competitive. In the end we say Hahalua will take this 60.90%.
@
Yeti just jumped infront of Second Line in the tables so Second Line will be looking for a W here to knock Yeti back down. We're bordering on too-close-to-call territory here but we pick Second Line for the W 54.54%.
Summary
@ = 77.03%
@ = 74.04%
@ = 72.60%
@ = 66.73%
@ = 60.90%
@ = 54.54%
Hamish MacAndrew #20 - Safety - Austin Copperheads - [Player Profile - Update Thread - Wiki page - Twitter]